Will 2026 Be the Hottest Year on Record?

Last updated: July 2026  ·  8 min read

Halfway through the year, 2026 is running hot. June was the second-warmest June ever recorded, global ocean temperatures set a new monthly record, and a strengthening El Niño is expected to push global averages higher through the winter. The question that follows naturally: will 2026 end up as the hottest year in recorded history?

The honest answer is that a new record is possible but not the most likely outcome — and the reasons why reveal a lot about how global temperature records actually work. This article walks through the data so far, the El Niño factor, and the scenarios forecasters are weighing for the rest of the year.

Where 2026 Stands at the Halfway Mark

The global-average temperature for January through June 2026 was the third-highest in records going back to 1850, according to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. June itself was the second-warmest June ever measured — just 0.09 °C below the June 2024 record — and NASA and the European Copernicus Climate Change Service reached the same ranking independently.

Two details from the June data stand out. Global ocean surface temperature was the highest on record for the month, with the average across extra-polar oceans reaching 20.86 °C — marginally above the June 2024 mark. And Western Europe recorded its warmest June ever, driven by an intense heatwave in the second half of the month.

Being third at the halfway mark matters. The years currently ahead of 2026 — 2024 and 2023 — both benefited from a strong El Niño that was already mature in their first halves. 2026 has posted near-record numbers without that tailwind, which is precisely why forecasters are watching the second half so closely.

The El Niño Factor

In June, NOAA upgraded its ENSO status to an El Niño Advisory: El Niño conditions are now present in the tropical Pacific. Forecast models give a 96–98% probability that the event persists through the winter of 2026–27, a roughly 88% chance it reaches at least strong intensity, and around 63% odds of a very strong event peaking between November 2026 and January 2027.

El Niño matters for global temperature because it releases heat stored in the Pacific into the atmosphere. But the effect operates with a lag of several months. An event peaking in December influences the annual average of the following year far more than the year in which it forms. That is the pattern behind the last two record years: 2016 followed the 2015–16 El Niño peak, and 2024 followed the 2023–24 event.

For 2026, this timing cuts both ways. The developing El Niño will warm the final months of the year — likely enough to keep 2026 in the top three, possibly enough to challenge the record if the event intensifies faster than expected. But the bulk of its warming influence will land in 2027.

Three Scenarios for How 2026 Ends

Note what is absent from this list: any scenario in which 2026 is not among the warmest years ever measured. That part is no longer uncertain. The open question is only the final ranking — and whether the margin to the 2024 record closes entirely.

Why 2027 May Be the Real Record Candidate

If the current El Niño forecast verifies — a strong-to-very-strong event peaking around December 2026 — the historical pattern points to 2027 as the more likely record breaker. Post-peak years inherit months of elevated ocean heat release, and both of the most recent record years followed exactly this template.

This is the kind of question where structured forecasting adds discipline. A claim like “2026 will be the hottest year” can be scored against a defined data source and deadline, and probability estimates can be updated monthly as agency bulletins arrive. Understanding how accurate aggregated forecasts tend to be — and how to read probability estimates correctly — matters more for slow-moving climate questions than for almost any other forecast domain, because the temptation to over-read a single hot month is constant.

The Bottom Line

2026 is virtually certain to finish among the warmest years on record and very likely in the top five. A new record is possible but depends on how quickly the developing El Niño intensifies — and the timing argues for patience: the event’s peak is forecast for the turn of the year, which historically loads the record-breaking potential into the year that follows.

For forecasters, the useful framing is not “is it hot?” — it demonstrably is — but “which year takes the top spot, and by what margin?” Those are questions with defined answers, arriving on a known schedule, one monthly bulletin at a time. If the concept is new to you, start with how prediction markets work.