Category: 🌍 Geopolitics — Global Forecasts and Power Dynamics

Last updated: July 2026  ·  9 min read The confrontation between the United States and Iran has become the defining geopolitical risk of 2026. Since American strikes began in May, the conflict has closed the Strait of Hormuz to most traffic, pushed oil above $100 per barrel, and opened...

Last updated: July 2026  ·  8 min read On July 16, 2026, China formally launched the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organisation (WAICO) — a 29-nation intergovernmental body headquartered in Shanghai. A day later, President Xi Jinping told the World AI Conference that AI development “should not be a solo...

Last updated: June 2026  ·  9 min read The fall of Bashar al-Assad in late 2024 ended more than five decades of Assad family rule in Syria. What followed was not a clean transition but a complex, contested process involving multiple armed factions, competing regional powers, a shattered economy,...

Last updated: June 2026  ·  8 min read North Korea occupies a unique position in global geopolitics: a nuclear-armed state that is largely closed to outside observation, governed by a leadership whose decision-making is opaque, and whose actions have the potential to trigger a crisis involving multiple major powers....

Last updated: June 2026  ·  9 min read In May 2026, the Indian military launched Operation Sindoor — a series of precision strikes on targets in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Pakistani territory, in response to a terrorist attack that India attributed to Pakistan-based militant groups. The operation triggered the most...

Last updated: June 2026  ·  9 min read The conflict in Gaza has defined the geopolitical landscape since late 2023. As of mid-2026, fighting has continued through multiple rounds of diplomacy, collapsed ceasefires, and shifting international pressure. The question of whether a durable ceasefire is achievable — and what...

Last updated: June 2026  ·  9 min read The relationship between the United States and NATO has been a defining feature of the post-World War II international order. Under the second Trump administration, that relationship is being stress-tested in ways that are reshaping European security assumptions, defence spending trajectories,...

Last updated: May 2026  ·  8 min read US-China tensions in 2026 are not limited to Taiwan risk. The broader conflict now includes tariffs, export controls, artificial intelligence, advanced chips, rare earths, supply chains, industrial policy, and the strategic question of technological self-reliance. For forecasters, this makes the US-China...

Last updated: May 2026  ·  8 min read Europe defense spending in 2026 is no longer a narrow budget topic. It has become a major geopolitical forecast involving NATO commitments, Ukraine support, industrial capacity, fiscal pressure, and the long-term security balance between Europe, Russia, and the United States. The...

Last updated: May 2026  ·  8 min read Colombia’s 2026 presidential election is a high-stakes political forecast because it combines security risk, peace-process uncertainty, fiscal pressure, energy policy, and regional stability. The election is not only about ideology. It is also about whether Colombia continues dialogue-focused security policy or...