World Cup 2026 Quarter-Final Predictions: Match-by-Match Forecast

Last updated: July 2026  ·  9 min read

The 2026 World Cup has reached the stage where every forecast gets tested within days. Eight teams remain, four quarter-finals are scheduled between July 9 and July 12, and the field looks very different from what most pre-tournament predictions assumed. Brazil is gone. Portugal is gone. Both the United States and Mexico exited in the round of 16. And Norway — a team most models treated as a mid-tier dark horse — is preparing for the biggest match in its football history.

This article walks through each quarter-final from a forecasting perspective: what the matchup looks like, what prediction markets are pricing, and which scenarios could realistically unfold. As always, the goal is not certainty — it is a clear-eyed reading of probabilities and the factors that could move them.

How the Bracket Got Here

The knockout rounds have been unusually unkind to pre-tournament favourites. Norway eliminated Brazil 2-1 in the round of 16 behind a late Erling Haaland brace, sending the five-time champions to their earliest World Cup exit since 1990. Spain ended Portugal’s campaign — and possibly Cristiano Ronaldo’s World Cup career — with a late Mikel Merino goal. England survived a 3-2 contest against co-host Mexico, while Belgium dismantled the United States 4-1 to reach a first quarter-final since 2018.

Argentina’s path has been the most dramatic. The defending champions needed extra time to get past tournament sensation Cape Verde in the round of 32, then trailed Egypt late in the round of 16 before scoring three times in the final fifteen minutes — Lionel Messi equalising in the 83rd minute and Enzo Fernández winning it in stoppage time. Whether that pattern reads as resilience or fragility is one of the genuinely open questions of this tournament, a theme we explored in our pre-tournament knockout stage predictions.

France vs Morocco — July 9, Boston

France has been the most convincing team in the tournament so far: three group-stage wins, a comfortable round-of-32 victory over Sweden, and a controlled — if narrow — win against Paraguay in the round of 16. Markets have responded, installing France as the outright favourite at odds implying roughly a 35% title probability. Kylian Mbappé sits on seven goals, tied at the top of the Golden Boot race.

Morocco, however, is the one opponent in this round with recent proof it can beat elite European sides on this stage. The 2022 semifinalists have again combined defensive organisation with efficient transitions, and this is a rematch of that famous Qatar semi-final — one France won 2-0, but which was closer than the scoreline suggested.

Spain vs Belgium — July 10, Los Angeles

Spain’s tournament has been a study in contrast: held 0-0 by Cape Verde in the group stage, yet composed enough to eliminate Portugal in the round of 16. Markets moved Spain’s title price sharply after that result — from around +550 to roughly +340, an implied probability in the low twenties. The underlying profile remains what it was before the tournament: dominant possession, territorial control, and an occasional struggle to convert that control into goals.

Belgium is the round’s most interesting repricing case. Written off by many forecasters after an uneven group stage, the Belgians produced their most complete performance of the tournament in the 4-1 win over the United States. The question forecasters must answer: was that a genuine level shift, or one strong performance against a defensively disorganised opponent? Prediction markets tend to overweight the most recent result — a bias worth keeping in mind when evaluating Belgium’s price, and one of the recurring lessons from our guide to predicting World Cup matches.

Norway vs England — July 11, Miami

This is the matchup with the widest range of plausible narratives. Norway has never been in a World Cup quarter-final. It arrived here by beating Brazil, with Haaland scoring twice late to extend his international scoring streak to 14 consecutive matches — 27 goals in that span. He now sits level with Messi and Mbappé on seven tournament goals.

England, meanwhile, has done what England often does in group stages and early knockouts: win without fully convincing. The 3-2 result against Mexico required late composure under real pressure. Markets still price England ahead of Norway — around 15-18% for the title against Norway’s outsider price — but the gap between these two teams on current form is far narrower than historical reputation suggests.

Argentina vs Switzerland or Colombia — July 12, Kansas City

At the time of writing, the final round-of-16 match — Switzerland against Colombia in Vancouver — had not yet been decided. Either opponent presents Argentina with a similar structural problem: a disciplined defensive block that concedes little. Colombia entered the match without conceding a goal in three consecutive World Cup games; Switzerland reached the round of 16 for a fourth consecutive World Cup on the strength of its organisation.

The forecasting question about Argentina is no longer about talent — it is about pattern. The champions have now needed late rescues in consecutive knockout rounds. One reading: championship teams find ways to win, and Messi’s 83rd-minute equaliser against Egypt is exactly the kind of moment that defines title runs. The alternative reading: repeatedly conceding first and chasing games is a strategy that eventually fails against elite opposition. Markets price Argentina at roughly +330 — closest challenger to France — suggesting they lean toward the first interpretation. Our full Argentina World Cup 2026 analysis looked at this squad’s age profile and depth before the tournament.

For a broader view of how the title picture has shifted since the group stage, see our pre-tournament breakdown of what prediction markets said about the favourites — several of those prices have moved dramatically.

What the Market Prices Imply

Converting current outright odds into implied probabilities gives an approximate title picture: France around 35%, Argentina and Spain in the 20-25% range, England around 15-18%, with Belgium, Morocco, Norway, and the Switzerland/Colombia winner sharing the remainder. Two observations follow.

First, even the strongest favourite is priced to lose the tournament roughly twice out of three times. That is not a weakness of the market — it is an honest reflection of how much variance four knockout matches contain. Second, the combined implied probability of the four “outsiders” is far from negligible. In a tournament that has already eliminated Brazil, Portugal, and both host giants before the quarter-finals, treating any of these prices as certainties would repeat the exact mistake most pre-tournament forecasts made.

The matches that decide whether these probabilities were well calibrated will be played within four days. That is what makes this stage of a World Cup uniquely valuable for anyone interested in forecasting: rarely do probability estimates meet resolution this quickly, at this scale, in front of this many people.