Category: 🌍 Geopolitics — Global Forecasts and Power Dynamics

Last updated: May 2026  ·  8 min read The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important energy chokepoints in the world. When risk rises around the waterway, markets do not only think about oil supply. They also evaluate LNG cargoes, tanker insurance, shipping delays, refinery access, inflation,...

Last updated: May 2026  ·  8 min read Iran sanctions and oil supply risks are back at the center of global market attention in 2026. The issue is not only whether Iran exports more or less crude. It is also about shipping routes, waivers, regional security, refinery behavior, and...

Last updated: May 2026  ·  9 min read The Middle East sits at the center of global oil supply. The region accounts for roughly a third of world crude oil production and controls the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow waterway through which nearly 20 percent of all traded...

Prediction markets track geopolitical uncertainty in real time — the events drawing the most collective attention reveal where informed forecasters see the highest stakes. Which Geopolitical Outcomes Are Prediction Markets Watching Most Closely in 2026? Category: Geopolitics  |  Reading time: ~8 min Every year, analysts publish lists of geopolitical...

The China-Taiwan situation is one of the most consequential and genuinely uncertain geopolitical risks in the current global environment. China and Taiwan: How Prediction Markets Are Reading the Risk Category: Geopolitics  |  Reading time: ~8 min This event is among the most closely tracked in geopolitical outcomes prediction markets...

The conditions under which the Russia-Ukraine conflict could end remain deeply uncertain — and genuinely contested. Will the Russia-Ukraine War End in 2026? Ceasefire Scenarios and What Would Need to Be True Category: Geopolitics  |  Reading time: ~9 min This event is among the most closely tracked in geopolitical...

Prediction markets aggregate collective expectations into real-time probability estimates for political outcomes. How Do Prediction Markets Price Political Events? Category: Prediction Markets  |  Reading time: ~8 min Every major election produces the same pattern: polls say one thing, experts say another, and the actual result often surprises everyone. Yet...